Tag: economy

Big Poll Promises From Maharashtra To Michigan – But Where Are The Jobs?

by Derek O'Brien

Eight thousand miles away, across an ocean, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have desperately tried to woo youth and women before election day. Also in November, in the country of Kamala Devi Harris’s maternal ancestors, political parties are reaching out to 6 crore women voters and 2.5 crore youth in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. Raise your hand if you are a woman or between the ages of 18 and 30. They want your vote.

Campaigns of political parties in these two states are focused, from ‘Mati, Beti, Roti’ and ‘Ladki Bahin Yojana’, to ‘Maiya Samman scheme’ and a youth unemployment benefit scheme. The 8.5 crore voters in the youth and women demographic can clearly be the inflexion point.

But for all the pre-poll promises to youth and women, these statistics tell a story.

  • About 75 lakh youth enter the labour force every year in India
  • Youth unemployment rate has been at a high 10% for the last two years
  • One in three youth are neither in education, employment, nor training. Women account for a staggering 95% of this group
  • The urban female unemployment rate for 2023 averaged at nearly 9%. For young urban females, it was 20%
  • In 2022, the unemployment rate was six times higher for individuals with secondary or higher education, and nine times higher for graduates, than those who could not read or write
  • In 2023-24, the unemployment rate for graduates was at 13%, and postgraduates at 12%
  • Unemployment rate among educated females is among the worst in the country, with 20% of graduates and 22.5% of post-graduates unemployed
  • The Economic Survey reveals that half of all individuals are not ready to be employed upon graduating from college
  • Only four out of ten youth in the workforce possess formal skills
  • The female labour force participation rate is at 32%, compared to 58% for men. In urban areas, it is 28% for women compared to 60% for men
  • The Union government introduced a new internship scheme in October 2024 to reduce the unemployment rate in the country. A top company needs to train 4,000 people a year to achieve the target set by the Union government. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that a private firm will need to spend ₹ 20 crore every year to train youngsters. How many companies will?

Even after training, there is no guarantee that the trainees will be retained or find a job in the formal workforce. This is especially worrying since this scheme comes at a time when there have been job cuts by major companies across the globe.

Three Constructive Suggestions

Experts have suggested that a better way to roll out the scheme would have been by engaging Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) instead of big firms. Interns often gain more practical experience in smaller firms, and these businesses, in turn, benefit from an extra set of hands. Additionally, the likelihood of retaining interns and converting them into medium- to long-term employees would be significantly higher, creating a more sustainable model for both interns and MSMEs. This would also encourage and ease the transition of an own account establishment (establishment operated without any hired employees) to a hired worker establishment (establishment operated with at least one hired employee), which would benefit the economy more.

To tackle urban unemployment, the Union government should accept what many states have done, and the parliamentary standing committee on labour had suggested in its 25th report: create an employment guarantee programme for urban areas with special emphasis on women. States like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, Telangana, and West Bengal already run similar schemes.

An urban unemployment guarantee programme will be a step in line with the Right to Livelihood, which has been read into the Right to Life through judicial interpretation. Moreover, it will be a step towards turning the Right to Work (Article 41), currently a directive principle, into a fundamental right.

Joyce Banda, former President of one of the world’s poorest countries, Malawi, put it well, “The seeds of success in every nation on earth are best planted in women and children”.

[This article was also published in NDTV | Monday, November 4, 2024]

Posted 4th November 2024 by Derek O'Brien

The 12-Letter Word Giving The Government Sleepless Nights

by Derek O'Brien

The BJP floundered in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The floundering continued on the floor of both Houses where Members of Parliament from the INDIA parties delivered multiple speeches that were well-structured, well-executed, and rich in content. A recurring theme in many of these powerful interventions on the Budget was a 12-letter word giving Modi and his coalition sleepless Delhi nights: unemployment.

Article 41 of the Constitution states, “The State shall, within the limits of its economic capacity and development, make effective provision for securing the right to work, to education, and to public assistance in cases of unemployment, old age, sickness and disablement, and in other cases of undeserved want.”

Employment And Food Insecurity

Many MPs in the Opposition quoted CMIE data about the employment rate – which is the ‘proportion of employed persons in the working age population’ – recorded at 37% in June 2024. The Global Hunger Index 2023 was often referred to last week in Parliament – India ranked 111th out of 125 countries. Despite improvements in food production and distribution, food insecurity persists, particularly in marginalised communities.

Impact On Personal Freedoms

A citizen cannot truly enjoy any liberty when perpetually anxious about her family’s unmet needs. This becomes even more important when the Budget skirts around the issues of health, nutrition, social security, and education. It is difficult to think about personal liberties on an empty stomach.

MGNREGA

MGNREGA addresses the issue of Right to Work. However, it ensures it as a statutory right, instead of being a Fundamental Right. The latter cannot be taken away by an amendment of the MGNREGA Act. It bears repetition that states have been constantly deprived of MGNREGA funds. The Union owes the West Bengal government alone ₹ 7,000 Crores for the scheme.

In a labour-surplus society, why then is the Union government often selling the family silver to private entities? Two dozen large Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) have been privatised. This is not the solution. Should it not be the duty of the state to offer the labour force multiple opportunities for employment? There are 30 lakh vacancies in the Union government and government-controlled organisations. What is the road map and timelines for these vacancies to be filled? Parliament is in session. The government must provide answers.

Education And Skill Development

The Union has an obligation to provide quality education and skill development to improve employability, and guarantee livelihood. But Budget 2024 has allocated only ₹ 1.20 lakh crore to education, which is a 2% decline from Actuals (Rs 1.23 lakh crores) in 2023-24.

Right To Livelihood As A Fundamental Right

Through judicial interpretation, the Right to Livelihood has been read into the Right to Life, even though it is not explicitly listed among the Fundamental Rights in Part III of the Constitution. The Supreme Court emphasised, “An equally important facet of the right to life is the right to livelihood because no person can live without the means of living, that is, the means of livelihood. If the right to livelihood is not treated as a part of the constitutional right to life, the easiest way of depriving a person of his right to life would be to deprive him of his means of livelihood to the point of abrogation. Such deprivation would not only strip life of its effective content and meaningfulness but also make life impossible to live.”

The Right to Work, outlined in the directive principles, has been interpreted alongside the Rights to Livelihood and Life, evolving into a Fundamental Right through judicial pronouncements. Integrating the Right to Work into Fundamental Rights, and ensuring that policies are designed to create sustainable job opportunities, is paramount to ensuring employment. Even after a tepid performance in the elections, where they were punished by young people, this government refuses to prioritise investment in education and vocational training.

Only talk about cooperative federalism will not do. States politically opposed to the ruling dispensation are deprived on flimsy grounds for years of their MGNREGA funds. These are funds due to people who have completed their work, and have still not been paid.

Additionally, fostering a more inclusive job market by supporting small businesses and encouraging entrepreneurship can play a critical role in generating employment. By taking these steps, India can better align its economic policies with its constitutional commitments and provide more meaningful support to its citizens.

The Right to Work still requires the state to take responsibility, and appropriate legislative actions, to fully provide citizens with the Right to Life, Livelihood, and Dignity.

[This article was also published in NDTV | Monday, July 29, 2024]

Posted 29th July 2024 by Derek O'Brien

No warranty for ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’

by Derek O'Brien

On March 31, the INDIA alliance parties will hold a mega rally at Ramlila Maidan in New Delhi. The message for India’s 2024 general elections is a simple one: BJP versus Democracy. On the other flank, BJP offers “Modi Ki Guarantee”.

Here are 15 guarantees promised by Narendra Modi and his party. What’s the warranty on each guarantee? Judge for yourself.

1. Jobs: The BJP had promised to create “25 crore jobs” in their 2014 manifesto. In 2023, a Union minister admitted that only “1.2 crore jobs were created since 2014”. Reportedly, the minister referred to EPFO data to substantiate his claims on employment. As things stand, four out of ten graduates under the age of 25 are unemployed (‘State of Working India 2023’ report by Azim Premji University’s Centre for Sustainable Employment).

2. Doubling farmers’ income: Incomes needed to grow by 10 per cent year-on-year from 2015 in order to double by 2022. Actual growth has been only 3.5 per cent. At these growth rates, the guarantee will only be delivered in 2035. As per the latest NCRB data, the grim reality is that 30 farmers commit suicide every day.

(Accidental Deaths and Suicides in India 2022)

3. Demonetisation: Bringing back black money, curbing counterfeiting, stopping terrorism, ending corruption — all guarantees have failed. 99 per cent of the demonetised currency has come back into the system. This hare-brained scheme was nothing short of an act of economic terrorism.

4. Ujjwala scheme: As per reports, despite subsidies, over 1.2 crore households bought no refill cylinders at all in 2022-23. Another 1.5 crore beneficiaries bought only one refill cylinder.

5. Bullet Train: The project was announced in 2017. Since then, the deadline has been pushed several times.

6. Swachh Bharat Mission: In the last five years, 367 persons have died while undertaking hazardous cleaning of sewers and septic tanks (Lok Sabha, Unstarred Question No 440, replied on 05/12/2023, Annexure II). This is despite manual scavenging being banned in India since 2013.

7. Namami Gange: Pollution levels in the Ganga are higher than the levels recorded in 2014. More than half of the sewerage plant projects have been completed. According to the ‘Quantitative analysis of Microplastics along River Ganga’ study by Toxics Link in 2021, of the samples tested, the highest concentration of microplastic pollutants was found in Varanasi — which also happens to be the Prime Minister’s constituency.

8. Sagarmala Project: A port-led initiative to enhance India’s logistics sector. According to the Demands for Grants 2022-23 committee, out of the 44 projects in development, 31 projects had reportedly not received any funds.

9. PM Kisan: Rs 3,000 crore was transferred to 42 lakh ineligible farmers till 2021. The Union government recovered only one-tenth of the amount from fraudulent beneficiaries. (Rajya Sabha, Session 263, Unstarred Question No 12, Answered on 02/02/2024)

10. Atma Nirbhar Bharat: The scheme guaranteed Rs 3 lakh crore in collateral-free automatic loans to MSMEs. However, the reality is that only existing borrowers were targeted.

11. Digital India: There have been several Aadhar-based data breaches in recent years. Last year, the private data of 81 crore Indians was leaked to hackers on the dark web.

12. Railway infrastructure: 244 train accidents between 2017 and 2022. 15 major accidents in 2023 alone. Half of the compulsory track safety inspections were not completed. The Railway Budget has been subsumed under the Union Budget.

13. Nari-shakti: Until 2021, nearly 80 per cent of Beti Bachao Beti Padhao scheme funds were spent on advertising. In 2021-22, women labourers earned 60 per cent of what men did (‘Economic Growth, Structural Change, and Women’s Earnings in India’, CASI, University of Pennsylvania). 4,45,256 crimes occurred against women in 2022. This translates to 51 First Information Reports (FIRs) every hour. (NCRB Crime in India 2022)

14. Ude Desh Ka Aam Nagrik (UDAN): Of the 774 routes awarded under the aviation scheme UDAN-3, half could not initiate operations. Of the 371 routes that did start operations, only one-third could complete the three-year concession period. (CAG Report, Union Government (Civil), Ministry of Civil Aviation, No. 22 of 2023, (Compliance Audit), Para 3.1.1)

15. Hunger: Three out of four Indians cannot afford a healthy balanced diet. (The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023, FAO). Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana, a scheme started in response to COVID-19, had to be extended for five more years. As the number of billionaires increases manifold, 80 crore Indians are still dependent on free rations for their meals.

Modi guarantee. Zero warranty.

[This article was also published in The Indian Express | Friday, March 29, 2024]

Posted 29th March 2024 by Derek O'Brien

How BJP government’s Data Fails Rekha, Kavita, and Mohan

by Derek O'Brien

The interim budget session of Parliament has just concluded. Nine days of the Union government using a deluge of several self-aggrandising adjectives — some romantic, others poetic and almost all unsubstantiated by fact. Intellectual dishonesty about data is endemic. This columnist delves into the lives behind the numbers. The people who aggregate into government “data” and find out how India really lives. This is the story of Rekha, Kavita and Mohan.

Health: “The Ayushman Bharat scheme has greatly helped the poor.”

Scenario A: Rekha visits a government hospital and waits in a long queue. She desperately needs medical assistance. She knows the treatment she will get here is of poor quality, but this is all her pocket allows. Not just the quality of the treatment, but the process of accessing it is also difficult. Data stored with government hospitals under the Ayushman Bharat scheme is riddled with errors. This pushes Rekha, and citizens like her, further away from timely healthcare. The numbers either misidentify the dead, incorrectly record surgery details or entirely leave out beneficiaries from the list. If Rekha is lucky enough to not get entangled in all the red tape, she would be treated at a government facility, where resources are limited and facilities often sub-par. What more can one expect from a government that invests a mere 2.1 per cent of GDP in healthcare? Endless out-of-pocket expenditure coupled with insufficient government support impoverishes 55 million Indians every year.

Scenario B: Rekha attempts self-medication to save money. This severely jeopardises her health. According to the recent NFHS report, the proportion of households that typically avoided utilising government health facilities between 2019 and 2021 was a staggering 49.9 per cent. This means that half the country does not turn to government facilities in their time of need. Reality gets worse for Indian women like Rekha. Six out of 10 women from the general category, and seven out of 10 women from the tribal community have reported at least one concern in accessing healthcare. P.S: The International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) Director and Senior Professor K S James, who was behind this year’s NFHS data, was suspended by the Union government shortly after the release of the report.

Food security: “India’s food diversity is a dividend for global investors.”

Scenario A: Kavita decides to buy her family’s monthly ration from the government-subsidised ration shop. The prices are low but so is the nutritional value. Kavita’s is not a one-off case. Her reality confirms what various independent surveys say, like the Global Hunger Index where India ranked 111 out of 125 countries. Kavita’s reliance on subsidised options amplifies the struggles faced by countless low-income Indian families whose nutritional needs remain unfulfilled.

Scenario B: Kavita opts to buy groceries from the supermarket close by. It gives her more options, and better quality, albeit at a higher cost. Kavita reduces the number of meals she has in order to afford the quality. Her predicament supplements the report recently published by FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, and WHO which finds that three out of four Indians (a staggering one billion people) cannot afford a healthy diet.

Employment: “Today, every youth believes that they can cement their job position with hard work and skills”

Scenario A: Mohan decides to participate in a recruitment drive organised at the local school. Like the five thousand others from his state, he joins the queue for a job in war-torn Israel. Mohan fears for his life but the prospect of earning over one lakh rupees per month is tempting. That is ten times more than what he is earning now. Twenty-four year-old Mohan knows that there would be a grave threat to his life in a country where 30,000 people have been killed since October of last year. However, in the grocery store in his locality, a packet of rice costs 56 per cent more while dal costs 120 per cent more than it did earlier. If he wants to provide for his family, then a job in a war zone is his only option.

Scenario B: Mohan is considering taking up a job as a delivery agent for a food services company. He has a graduate degree in economics from a reputed central university. Sadly, much like the other 42 per cent graduates under 25 years of age, he has not found employment. It has now been 11 months. Every morning he finds himself as one of those 10 per cent who the newspapers report to be unemployed at a two-year record high. Mohan has to provide for his ageing parents. He understands that as a gig worker, no law protects him from losing his job or working unfixed strenuous hours. So he tells himself, “let me board that plane to Israel.”

The voices of Kavita, Rekha and Mohan did not find a place in the Prime Minister’s marathon monologue in Parliament.

[This article was also published in The Indian Express | Friday, February 16, 2024]

Posted 16th February 2024 by Derek O'Brien

Basket of empty promises

by Derek O'Brien

The President’s Address in the Current Budget Session was the first time it was delivered in the Lok Sabha, and not the Central Hall of Parliament. That is like playing a key match at Wimbledon on (a new) Court One and not the iconic Centre Court.

We swotted up the President’s Address speeches delivered in the last 10 years. Here is a list of eight terms repeatedly used by this government in the last decade that hardly got a single mention in the speech they wrote this year.

Doubling farmers’ income: “My Government is striving day and night to attain the goal of doubling farmers income.” President’s Address, 2019.

No actual assessment of farmers’ incomes has been carried out by the Union government since 2013. Incomes needed to grow by 10 per cent year-on-year from 2015 in order to double by 2022. In reality, the growth in farmers’ incomes has been around 3.5 per cent. Pipe dreams. Thirty people involved in the farming sector committed suicide every day in 2022.

Demonetisation: “To combat the evils of black money, corruption, counterfeit currency and terror financing, my government took the decision on November 8, 2016, to demonetise old five hundred and one thousand rupee currency notes.” President’s Address, 2017.

Demonetisation was an act of economic terrorism that failed to achieve any of its stated objectives. Black money, counterfeiting, or terrorism, have certainly not been reduced, leave alone eliminated. Ninety-nine per cent of demonetised currency was returned.

Smart Cities Mission: “My Government has initiated the Smart Cities programme, envisaging city development in a challenge mode.” President’s Address, 2016.

Launched in 2015 but consigned to oblivion in the President’s Address in 2024. Full of buzzwords like innovation, integration, convergence, but no concrete definition of what actually constitutes a smart city. Between 2015 and 2021, of the 33 cities selected in the first round (including fast-track), the Union government released no funds to two cities for four years, 13 cities for three years, 12 cities for two years, and five cities for one year.

Namami Gange: “Namami Gange”, an Integrated Ganga Conservation Mission has been set up with a budgetary allocation of more than 2000 crore.” President’s Address, 2015.

Launched in 2014, this scheme’s target was to clean the Ganga by 2019. Fact 1: Pollution levels in the river are higher than the levels recorded in 2014. Fact 2: The highest concentration of microplastic pollutants was found in the Prime Minister’s own constituency, Varanasi. Fact 3: The National Ganga Council formed in 2016, and headed by the PM, held its first meeting only after three years in 2019.

Jobs/unemployment: “While focusing our attention on manufacturing to create more jobs, my Government will continue to work on our formidable strength in the service sector.” President’s Address, 2015

This year, not a word about unemployment. The unemployment rate among youth in the age group 20-24 years was 45 per cent in the October-December 2023 quarter. Forty-two per cent of graduates under 25 years are unemployed in India. While India will need to create 7 crore jobs over the next 10 years, it is projected to only create 2.4 crore jobs.

Sagarmala Project: “Government has also formulated Sagar Mala Project to promote Port-led development of the coastal regions and communities.” President’s Address, 2015

In 2023, the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Transport, Tourism, and Culture had cast a scathing critique on the lacklustre progress of funds utilisation within the Sagarmala project. The report noted that the “actual expenditure is only half of the BE allocation”. As a glaring indictment, during the Demands for Grants 2022-23, the committee underscored that out of the 44 projects in development, 31 projects had not received any funds.

Bullet train project: “My Government is committed to the construction of world-class Railways. Work on the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-speed bullet train has commenced.” President’s Address, 2018

With much ballyhoo, the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train project’s bhoomi pujan ceremony was held in 2017. Despite initially setting a completion target of 2022, subsequent reports indicate a shift in deadlines, particularly for the Vapi-Sabarmati section. Now slated for completion by 2027, a 10-year delay. Concurrently, the project cost has surged, from the initial estimate of Rs 1.08 lakh crore to Rs 2 lakh crore.

Swachh Bharat Mission: “It is our collective responsibility to pay a befitting tribute to Pujya Bapu by making the country Swachh by 2019 when we celebrate the 150th birth anniversary of the Father of the Nation, Mahatma Gandhi.” President’s Address, 2018.

After all the hype and hoopla, this has now been reduced to just one sentence in this year’s address. In an answer to a question in Rajya Sabha in 2023, the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment stated that 308 persons have died while undertaking hazardous cleaning of sewers and septic tanks in the last five years. This, despite the fact that manual scavenging has been banned in the country since 2013.

Another speech from Prime Minister Modi’s government. Another jhola of empty promises.

[This article was also published in The Indian Express | Friday, February 2, 2024]

Posted 2nd February 2024 by Derek O'Brien